woensdag 29 juli 2009

the economist - what went wrong with economics



"...two central parts of the discipline—macroeconomics and financial economics—are now, rightly, being severely re-examined (see article, article). There are three main critiques: that macro and financial economists helped cause the crisis, that they failed to spot it, and that they have no idea how to fix it."


Read the full article here.

woensdag 15 juli 2009

(ir)rational? Ariely vs Harford

Dan Ariely, writer of Predictably Irrational, behavioral economist, in discussion with Tim Harford, editor of the Financial Times, writer of "the undercover economist". Read the full discussion (including video responses here.

Dan Ariely on the case of high CEO salaries:



"First, it turns out that incentives are a bit more interesting and complex than standard economics would have us believe--sometimes we can pay more and get worse performance. Second, it appears that our intuitions and logic are sometimes inaccurate in their ability to predicting human behavior. What does this say about relying on standard economics and pure logic as a tool to guide the type of incentive mechanisms we create? It tells us that when we try to understand these mechanisms, and in particular when we make recommendations for how these mechanisms should be designed (which is something economists do often), we should take all the input we can into account, including our irrational characteristics. Standard economics and logic can help us create systems that are useful for perfectly rational people, but behavioral economics will help us design a better world for the rest of us."

Tim Harford on the results of behavioral economic experiments:



"While laboratory experiments are great for creating controlled conditions, they also create artificial conditions. There are several examples of important clashes between what happens in the laboratory and what happens outside. We know, for example, that procurement managers systematically screw up when bidding in a laboratory auction, but they do much better job in the (apparently identical) real life auctions situations they face everyday.

The economist John List has tried to replicate some famous "predictably irrational" results from the laboratory; the results tend to evaporate in more realistic settings...Dan, how can we be confident that these experimental results hold up in real life? And what further work would you like to see, to make us more confident in them?"

maandag 6 juli 2009

No rest for the wealthy - Daniel Gross in NY Times





"Forget Thorstein Veblen’s leisure class. In today’s money culture, to be idle is to be irrelevant."


What Thorstein Veblen's "Theory of the Leisure Class" has to say about today's society and the financial meltdown.



You can download Veblen's book here.